Tangible scenarios for commuter traffic to the city of Groningen show effects of E-bike use on total energy usage and emissions. This research was initiated by region Groningen-Assen (cooperation of 2 provinces and 12 municipalities in the Netherlands) and DHV BV with the aim to investigate whether the E-bike might be suitable for mitigating accessibility problems and reducing the environmental impact of commuter traffic. Secondly, this thesis might provide valuable information for policy makers, when they want to continue their efforts to promote the use of E-bikes in daily commute traffic.

What is the effect of E-bike usage on the accessibility of commuting traffic and local environment in compact cities in the Netherlands?

Literature study and expert interviews show that the image that E-bikes are something for the elderly is changing. The E-bike appears to be a cheap, clean and flexible alternative for the car. However, the E-bike is theft sensitive, traffic safety is an issue and it has a higher environmental impact than the conventional bicycle. The effect of E-bike use on the accessibility of a city and the quality of its environment depend on the change of habits of commuters starting to use an E-bike. Therefore behavioral sciences are needed to understand a commuter’s choice.

Mode choice for commuters is determined by objective and subjective factors. It is hard, if not impossible to model mode choice sufficiently. The literature study shows that many factors determine the mode choice of commuter. Working together with experts resulted in a model with the relevant factors for E-bike usage. Costs, traffic safety, image, weather, habits (car use), quality of cycling infrastructure and the presence of facilities are most relevant. Measures focusing at a single factor are ineffective due to the many factors at stake. A balanced package of incentives contains cycling infrastructure and public cycling facilities. Finally different target groups and situations demand for tailor made incentives. Mobility management is an effective measure to persuade the car commuter to switch in particular to E-bike.
Improvement of cycling infrastructure results in more cycling movements and better accessibility of a compact city. Traffic counts at upgraded cycling routes show in all cases more cycling movements per day; in some cases up to 17%. The utilization of E-bikes enhances the above mentioned effects. A literature study (including model studies, traffic counts and market research) and expert interviews show an increase in the number of cycling movements, a decrease in the number of car movements, a better traffic flow, higher average speeds for commuter traffic and less parking problems in city center. E-bike use results in a larger share of the E-bike in the total number of movements for commuter traffic (modal split). Size and cause of the shift differs per situation and the applied research method. Market research concludes that the total number of commuting cycling trips potentially increases with 4-9% due to a large availability of E-bikes. The E-bike appears to substitute for other means of transport for commuting traffic. More than 50% was previous conventional bicycle user, around 25% car user and the rest public transport and scooter.

The E-bike offers advantages concerning energy use and emissions compared to car and bus use. Accurate emission data was available for car and bus in the Netherlands. Since accurate data for E-bike for the Dutch situation was not available, Chinese data sets were analyzed and modified to fit the Dutch situation. The data was used for the scenario analysis for commuter traffic (<15 km) to the city of Groningen in 2020 (Netherlands). The scenario with 10% more E-bike use (modal split: 67.5% car, 7.5% bus, 15% bicycle and 10% E-bike) results in lower total energy use and emissions compared to a business as usual scenario (modal split: 70% car, 10 % bus, 19% bicycle and 11% E-bike). Alternative options to reduce environmental impact of commuter traffic were calculated as well. E-bike use was put into perspective with the improvements of energy efficiency of cars, car sharing and the E-bike in combination with renewable electricity. The use of E-bikes offers a substantial contribution to the reduction of the total environmental impact of commuter traffic. Moreover batteries have a large environmental impact due to scarce material use. Therefore further development of batteries and recycling of materials is important for sustainable personal transport.

Finally this study shows the E-bike potential for different cycling corridors in region Groningen-Assen. An integrated public transport network in combination with the development of car infrastructure, cycling infrastructure and park and ride will guarantee good accessibility for region Groningen-Assen in the future. Different modalities will strengthen each other. In such infrastructural networks the E-bike will have its own role for commuter traffic.