In the framework of the autonomous developments project, the Fietsberaad has made general prognoses about the possible consequences on bicycle use of ageing and the increasing numbers of immigrants.

The main conclusions relating to ageing (Chapter 0) are:

• Despite the growth of the elderly population, the bicycle use of the average Dutch person will fall slightly. The average number of bicycle journeys per inhabitant will fall in the coming 20 years by 3.1 percent as a result of ageing. This fall will be totally compensated by a slight growth in the population. In large and medium-sized towns, ageing will have very little effect on bicycle use. The greatest decline will take place in smaller municipalities in North Brabant, Limburg and North Holland.
• For policy makers and designers of infrastructure, the rise in the number of elderly people on the cycle paths is important. Older cyclists have differing demands and requirements, such as simpler traffic situations, longer green lights and minimal height differences. Furthermore, older people are more vulnerable. If other circumstances remain unchanged, the number of victims of serious bicycle accidents will increase by over 10 percent in the next 20 years as a result of ageing.

The main conclusions regarding the increase in the number of immigrants (Chapter 3) are:

• Despite their low bicycle use, the increase in the immigrant population will only have a limited effect on bicycle use. The bicycle use of the average Dutch person will thereby fall by 1.8 percent in twenty years’ time. In two thirds of the municipalities, bicycle use will not fall, or only very slightly. The same applies to big cities like Rotterdam and Amsterdam. However, bicycle use in the big cities may grow significantly if the many immigrants who already live there now start cycling more.
• In many small and medium-sized municipalities in the west of the country, a substantial decrease in bicycle use is expected. The reason is suburbanisation of immigrants from the big cities to surrounding municipalities.