The potential for growth of bicycle use on account of increasing popularity of pedelecs varies by distance. For commuting distances between 2.5 – 5.0 km the expected growth is 10%, and this rises to as much as 38% for the 10 – 15 km range. These figures were applied to the current modal split. While taking into account population numbers, an estimate was made of the potential that the pedelec has an element of cycling traffic.
The evaluation in the case of Schiphol indicates an increase in the use of bikes of more than 20%. This is, in particular, thanks to the pedelec's potential for distance categories greater than 5 km. Precisely in the over 5km category one encounters large numbers of inhabitants (Amsterdam, Amstelveen, etc.). Based on this analysis, the potential increase in bike usage as a result of the pedelec was estimated by the municipality of Groningen to be about 5%, which is attributable, in particular, to the low population in the suburbs. The expected increase in use of the e-bike in Heerlen is about 14%.
The 5 – 10 km category exhibits the largest relative growth in the use of e-bikes, as concluded by the KpVV. The greater the number of inhabitants in the neighbourhood (disregarding the close vicinity), the greater the potential use of e-bikes. The growth potential is greatest in urban regions, such as when multiple cities or large agglomerations exist within the 15 km circle. That is why the electric bike has many chances in cities such as Zoetermeer (whose proximity consists of the entire southwestern Randstad area), Zaandam (proximity consisting of Amsterdam and Haarlem) and Schiphol (in the proximity of Amsterdam and Amstelveen at an interesting e-bike distance). For cities such as Lelystad, Leeuwarden, Apeldoorn, Groningen, and Assen there are hardly any city centres within range of the e-bike. But even so, a growth of 5% is possible there.